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Item Details
| Title:
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COGNITION AND CHANCE
THE PSYCHOLOGY OF PROBABILISTIC REASONING |
| By: |
Raymond S. Nickerson |
| Format: |
Hardback |
| List price:
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£130.00 |
| Our price: |
£117.00 |
| Discount: |
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| You save:
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£13.00 |
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| ISBN 10: |
0805848983 |
| ISBN 13: |
9780805848984 |
| Availability: |
Reprinting. This item may be subject to delays or cancellation.
 Delivery
rates
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| Stock: |
Currently 0 available |
| Publisher: |
TAYLOR & FRANCIS INC |
| Pub. date: |
27 May, 2004 |
| Pages: |
472 |
| Description: |
An overview of the information needed to make educated assumptions about the statistical or probabilistic characteristics of a situation, this text shows how to make intelligent assessments of risk, enhance decision making under uncertainty, facilitate the understanding of statistical information and critically evaluate the likelihood of claims. |
| Synopsis: |
Lack of ability to think probabilistically makes one prone to a variety of irrational fears and vulnerable to scams designed to exploit probabilistic naivete, impairs decision making under uncertainty, facilitates the misinterpretation of statistical information, and precludes critical evaluation of likelihood claims. Cognition and Chance presents an overview of the information needed to avoid such pitfalls and to assess and respond to probabilistic situations in a rational way. Dr. Nickerson investigates such questions as how good individuals are at thinking probabilistically and how consistent their reasoning under uncertainty is with principles of mathematical statistics and probability theory. He reviews evidence that has been produced in researchers' attempts to investigate these and similar types of questions. Seven conceptual chapters address such topics as probability, chance, randomness, coincidences, inverse probability, paradoxes, dilemmas, and statistics. The remaining five chapters focus on empirical studies of individuals' abilities and limitations as probabilistic thinkers.Topics include estimation and prediction, perception of covariation, choice under uncertainty, and people as intuitive probabilists. Cognition and Chance is intended to appeal to researchers and students in the areas of probability, statistics, psychology, business, economics, decision theory, and social dilemmas. |
| Illustrations: |
Illustrations |
| Publication: |
US |
| Imprint: |
Lawrence Erlbaum Associates Inc |
| Returns: |
Returnable |
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